On House of Councilors election in 2019 | 参議院選挙動向

“Subaru the Pleiades” 11mm f/2.8 20sec, 2018

July 3, 2019

On July 4, the Japanese government makes a public announcement for House of Councilors election, which will take place on July 21, I cast the ingress chart again and read the outcome of the vote.
In conclusion, for those who do not read a whole, although the present administration is bullish, there is a high possibility that the opposition party will leap this election.

The lord of the 10th house, representing the administration in the vernal equinox, is Saturn in his domicile. There is no affliction to Saturn except for Pluto which is applying to conjunct. ( However, until January 13, 2020, Pluto and Saturn will not have conjunction. )

The ingress chart on the vernal equinox [LEFT]
March 21, 2019
06:58:23 JST
35N42 / 139E46
The ingress chart on the summer solstice [RIGHT]
June 22, 2019
00:54:12 JST
35N42 / 139E46
In the ingress chart at Vernal Equinox, the current administration’s bullishness remains, and I read that there is no sign of weakness. Saturn itself is Infortune planet, but he is in domicile and less harmless.

The ascending sign is Aries, which is Cardinal sign. Therefore, this chart valid for three months as I follow a general rule in traditional astrology that tells us Cardinal sign for three months, Mutable sign for six months, and Fixed sign for one year.

So let me take the ingress chart on the summer solstice.
The ascending is Aries again; there are only 33 minutes difference from the ingress chart of the vernal equinox.
However, the state of the Saturn, which represents the administration, has changed significantly.

Saturn in the vernal equinox culminates and has the trine with Mars which is the lord of the ascendant. There is the square by sign between Saturn and the San with exaltation. Also, he has trine with the Moon, by sign, the lord of the fourth house, which represents political opponents; besides, she is the natural ruler of the ordinary people or the public.
At this point, the government is pretty bullish, and there is no affliction with the opposition party and the public. The administration seems to be supported by the people, although they have frustration with hard labour, and people’s interests aim to the matter which concerns the sixth house such as national service. However, the Moon is Peregrine and does not behold the ascendant, so she is likely indifferent to anything rather than the matters in the sixth house.

On the other hand, in the ingress chart on the summer solstice, Saturn culminates, but the circumstances around him are quite different. He retrogrades, and conjuncts with the south node which diminishes his strength, and aspects with opposition; Mars, the lord of the ascendant, and Mercury, the lord of the third house. Besides, the Moon, the lord of the fourth house, which denotes the political enemy, is in the 11th house representing the Parliament, and Saturn does not behold her. People are interested in Parliament, but our administration does not recognise it. The sun in the fourth house denotes that the prime minister stands alone and apart from his administration.
All of these circumstances imply a lousy situation for an administration. Saturn is in domicile and confident, but without any support from the other planets.

Followings are significant points:
– Saturn does not behold the Moon, which represents the masses and the opposition, can not be seen from the administration. The administration can underestimate them.
– The conjunction with the south node indicates a weakening of their potential.
– The opposition with Mars, the lord of the ascendant, which is in the fourth house, is an implication of negative outcome on the election for the current administration.

Let’s take a look at the political opponent signified by the fourth house and the Moon, which is the lord of the fourth house.

The ingress chart at the vernal equinox:
・ The diurnal chart
・ The north node in the 4th house
・ Moon Age: 14, increasing her light
・ The Moon is in the 6th house, peregrine, and void of course
・ The Moon does not behold the ascendant
・ The trine between the Moon and Mars, and has mutual receptions
・ The trine between the Moon and Saturn by the sign

The ingress chart at the summer solstice:
・ The nocturnal chart
・ There are the Sun, the north node, Mars, and Mercury in the 4th house
・ Moon age:18, decreasing her light
・ The Moon is in the 11th house, peregrine, and void of course
・ The sextile between the Moon and Jupiter in the 9th house
・ The trine between the Moon and Venus in the 3rd house

These facts indicate that political opponents are gaining more strength than the current administration.

Two fixed stars on the chart would tell little more about these charts.
On both vernal equinox, summer solstice ingress chart: Vega conjuncts M.C. at 0 degrees 30 minutes
On the summer solstice ingress chart: Pollux conjuncts Mars at 0 degrees 3 minutes

Vega is associated with music, art, and theatre, giving fame and wealth, and the bond with MC represents promised success. It is an indication of potential which the current administration gains for their publicity activities.

β Gemini, Pollux has the meaning of ferocious and cruel with Martian nature, and has the name “the wicked boy.” In particular, it is said to be careful about the aggression when it conjoins with the ascendant, M.C., Saturn, and Mars. The conjunction of Pollux and Mars in the fourth house implies the overwhelming victory of the opposition party. I do not know which party is.

more about Vega and Pollux

From those above testimonies, the opposition parties will likely leap House of Councilors election. In any case, the outcome will force the current administration to review its administrative policy.

For the circumstances after the election, I leave another interpretation to the ingress chart of the autumn equinox of this year because the ingress chart on the summer solstice valid for three months due to the ascending sign is the cardinal.

Outcome and review on the judgement

July 23, 2019

Outcom

The voting rate is 48.8%. It is noticeable that the second low level of interest in the past 30 years.
In the past, the ruling party used to have an advantage in the low turnout elections. The ruling party gained a majority this time, but they reduced their seats and did not secure the number of seats needed to fulfil Prime minister Abe’s long-cherished ambition of revising a pacifist Constitution. It will be an obstacle to achieving the current administration’s goal of “constitutional revision within two years”.

In the opposition, “Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan” increased the number of seats from 24 to 32 and “National Democratic Party” decreased from 23 to 21. “The party that protects the people from NHK,” which was considered to be a minor candidate, won one seat. Besides, “Reiwa Shinsengumi (Reiwa newly selected team)” won 2 places from 1. These two parties also gained the number of votes meeting the condition to qualify as a political party eligible for subsidies.

The Election Result

Evaluation [A / B / C / D / F ]

[F] General evaluation
[A] for “the present administration is bullish.”
[C-] for “there is a high possibility that the opposition party will leap this election.”

Evaluation basis

[A]
Saturn in Angular house and Domicile sign denotes bullishness and prosperity, even considering afflicts and retrogradation. I assumed that the current administration stays bullish, also if some problems occurred. He concluded that the ascendant lord Mars and Saturn’s opposition would keep their bullishness, even if they represent the robust election results for the current administration, as they join the South Node, which promotes the weakening of Saturn.

[C-]
Although the media reports that the “Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan” and “Reiwa Shinsengumi” have made great strides, both parties are not enough to threaten the current administration.
The topic of Reiwa Shinsengumi in the media is high, and the number of donations from the citizens they collected in three months (¥ 400 million), the number of audiences gathered in the street address, and the winning of two severely disabled people are noteworthy. Also, the media has already mentioned that they may be the next dark horse of the House of Representatives election. However, at present, they are not enough to threaten the administration.

[F] Genal evaluation
The primary reason is that I mentioned, “the outcome of the election will force the current administration to review its administrative policy.” The loss of seats necessary for a constitutional amendment will be an argument within the LDP. However, many did not change, and they no longer needed to review the administration policy.

Consideration: Ignoring the Basics is fatal!

The Moon, the lord of the fourth house in the eleventh house, does not behold the fourth house in Cancer. It is merely “aversion”. In classical astrology, when the significator does not behold its own sign, its strength greatly diminished. That is a fundamental rule. I have overestimated and misread that the Moon in the 6th house, at the vernal equinox, moved into the 11th house at the summer solstice chart, and Mars the lord of the ascendant and the north node in the 4th house. If I adhere to the basics, it is evident that the condition of the Moon is not good compared to Saturn.

According to Lilly’s score table:

Saturn [+1]

  • Domicile:5
  • The 10th:5
  • Retrogradation:-5
  • Conjunct to the south node:-4

The Moon [-3]

  • Peregrin:-5
  • The 11th:4
  • Decreasing in light:-2

Lilly’s score table PDF

At first, I should evaluate the strength of the Moon and Saturn with the basics, and make this criterion for the judgement to proceed. Although the scoring table does not always lead me to an answer, I realized again that it helps me to maintain objectivity. That’s because my dissatisfaction with the current administration policy has affected my judgement.

aversion

References:
Pro-amendment camp loses 2/3 majority
New anti-establishment political group makes big strides in Japan
Abe wins upper house poll but suffers constitutional reform setback

2019年 参議院選挙動向

参議院選を控えた今日、改めてチャートを作成し参院選の結果を読みます。
結論から言えば「政権が強気であることに変わり無いが、参議院選でいずれかの野党が躍進する可能性が高い」

春分図で政権を表す10室ロードは土星。ドミサイル(本来の部屋)にあり、コンジャンクトしようとしている冥王星以外はアフリクト(危害)が見られません。(2020年1月13日に冥王星と土星はコンジャンクトします)

春分図 2019年 [左]
2019/3/21
06:58:23 JST
35N42 / 139E46
夏至図 2019年 [右]
2019/6/22
00:54:12 JST
35N42 / 139E46
春分図では現政権の強気は変わらず、大きく動く気配無しと読みました。 春分図のアセンダント「おひつじ座」は活動宮。よって本チャートの有効期間を3ヶ月とします。(活動宮:3ヶ月、柔軟宮:6ヶ月、固定宮:1年)

そこで夏至チャートを作成。
アセンダントは同じく「おひつじ座」不思議な一致で、アセンダント度数の違いは33分のみ。
ところが政権を表す10室の支配星「土星」の状態は著しく変わっています。

春分図の土星はドミサイルで南中し、アセンダントロード「火星」から分離のトライン、政敵(野党)を表す4室のロードである月とトライン。月は大衆の表示星。またエグザルテーションの太陽とサインでスクウエア。 この時点では政権は強気で、野党や大衆との軋轢は見えません。穏やかに支持されている。ただ、6室の月は労働環境が悪く虐げられている状態で、アセンダントは見えず、ペレグリンで元気が無い。支持しているというより、6室以外の事柄に無関心な状態に近いと判じます。

一方、夏至図も土星は南中していますが、事情は異なります。
逆行、サウスノード(ドラゴンテイル)とのコンジャンクト、アセンダントロード「火星」とのオポジション、3室のロード「水星」とも対向。また政敵(野党)を表す4室のロード「月」は議会を表す11室にあり、土星からは見えません。 人々の関心は国会に向いてます。ところが現政権からはこれが認識できない。 また太陽は対向の4室。太陽を現首相として見れば、安倍首相は政権から孤立し、政権に敵対していると読めます。

これら全て現政権にとって好ましくない状況です。
ドミサイルにあり自信に満ちていますが、外的な支持が全くありません。

重要だと思う点を三つ:
・大衆と野党を表す「月」が政権「土星」から見えない。政権はこれらを侮りやすい。
・土星の弱体化を促すサウスノードとの合
・アセンダント・ロード「火星」と土星の衝は、現政権にとって厳しい選挙結果。

一方、政敵(野党)。4室とそのロード「月」を見てみましょう。

春分図:
・昼のチャート 月に不利
・4室にノースノード [有利]
・月齢 14、増光 [有利]
・月:ペレグリンで6室。ボイド [極めて不利]
・月:アセンダントを見ていない [極めて不利]
・月:アセンダント・ロード「火星」とトライン、ミューチュアルリセプション [有利]
・月:土星とはサインでトライン [有利]

夏至図:
・夜のチャート 月に有利
・4室に太陽、ノースノード、火星、水星 [有利/波乱含み]
・月齢 18、減光 [不利]
・月:ペレグリンで11室。ボイド [不利 11室は有利]
・月:9室の木星とセキスタイル [有利]
・月:3室の金星と分離のトライン [有利]

現政権(土星)が力を落としているのとは逆に、政敵・野党(月)は力を増しています。

さて、チャート上で目立つ恒星は二つあります。少しだけチャートに説明を加えられますね。

春分図・夏至図:Vega(ヴェガ) MCと0度30分でコンジャンクト
夏至図:Pollux(ポルックス) 火星と0度3分でコンジャンクト

Vegaは音楽・美術・演劇と関わる星で、名声と富を与え、MCとの結合は約束された成功を表します。現政権が有する広報活動能力と判じます。
Polluxはふたご座のβ星。火星の性質を帯び意味は凶暴、残酷性。またこの星の異名は「邪悪少年」。アセンダント、MC、土星、火星と結合した時の凶暴性には注意すべしとありますが、火星とコンジャンクトする夏至図では「現政権にとって邪悪」な存在となる野党の躍進要素と判じます。ただし、どの野党政党であるかは分かりません。

ヴェガとポルックスについて

これらのことから、参議院選での野党躍進と判じました。いずれにせよ、選挙後に現政権は政権運営方針を見直す必要が出てくるでしょう。

夏至図のアセンダントが活動宮のため、有効期間は3ヶ月程度。選挙後の様相については秋分図に譲ります。


結果と評価

2019年7月23日記

占断
2019年参議院選挙の動向について「政権が強気であることに変わり無いが、参議院選でいずれかの野党が躍進する可能性が高い」と判じました。

結果

投票率48.8%。過去30年で2番目の関心度の低さが目立ちます。
今回の特徴は、従来、投票率が低い選挙では与党が有利に動いていましたが、過半数を獲得したものの与党が議席を減らした点です。とは言え、連立与党にとってはそこそこの勝利です。一方、改憲議席数164を割ったことで、現政権の目標「2年以内の憲法改正」には不利な状況となりました。

野党の状況は「立憲民主党」が議席を24議席から32議席に増やし、「国民民主党」は23議席から21議席へと減らしました。泡沫と見られていた「NHKから国民を守る党」が1議席を獲得。また「れいわ新選組」は1議席から2議席。この2党は弱小ながら「政党要件」を満たす投票数を獲得しました。

The Election Result

評価 [A/B/C/D/F]

・【F】総評
・【A】「政権が強気であることに変わり無い」
・【C-】「いずれかの野党が躍進する可能性」

評価理由

【A】現政権の表示星「土星」へのいくつかのアフリクト、逆行を考慮しても、アンギュラー、ドミサイルは強気・隆盛を示唆しています。多少の問題が起きても強気のまま進む状態であると判じました。

【C-】「立憲民主党」「れいわ新選組」の躍進と報じるメディアもありますが、現政権を脅かすほどの結果ではありません。

確かに「れいわ新選組」の市民からの寄付金額(4億)、街頭演説での集客力、重度障害者2名の当選は従来の選挙では見られない現象でした。次の衆議院選のダークホースとなる可能性については、すでにメディアが言及している通りです。ですが、現状では政権を脅かすほどの存在ではありません。

【F】総評
理由は「選挙後に現政権は政権運営方針を見直す必要が出てくるでしょう」この一文です。確かに、改憲に必要な議席喪失は自民党内部で問題視されているでしょう。しかし、大勢には変化なく、政権運営方針を見直す必要はなくなりました。

考察:「基本」の無視は致命的

4室のロード月です。11室みずがめ座から、4室かに座は見えません。アヴァージョン(Aversion)です。古典占星術では、表示星が自らのサインを見ない時、その力は大きく削がれると判じます。正直に言います。これはド基本。春分図の6室月が夏至図で11室に移動したこと、4室の火星(アセンダントのロード)、ノースノードが入室している点を過大評価しました。基本に忠実であれば、土星と比較して月の状態が良くないことは一目瞭然です。汗が出てきた。

リリーの点数表に従えば以下の通り。

土星:+1

  • ドミサイル:+5
  • 10室:+5
  • 逆行:-5
  • サウスノードと合:-4

月:-3

  • ペレグリン:-5
  • 11室:+4
  • 減光:-2

ウィリアム・リリーの点数表PDF(英) | ウィリアム・リリーの点数表PDF(和)

まず月と土星の力評価を行い、これを占断の基準とすべきです。点数表が常に答えを導くわけではありませんが、客観性の保持に役立つことを改めて認識しました。何故なら、私が持つ現政権政策への不満が、占断に影響したことは間違いがないからです。

aversion

References:
Pro-amendment camp loses 2/3 majority
New anti-establishment political group makes big strides in Japan
Abe wins upper house poll but suffers constitutional reform setback

ハウス区分にAlacabitiusを使用していますが、ハウスの読み方は現QHP(Qualifying Horary Practitioner)ルールに従いカスプが属するサインに入る惑星は、カスプ外であっても当該ハウスに属するものとして扱います。つまり、ホールハウスサインシステムと4区分ハウスシステムを併用します。

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